Welcome back. Let's take a look at our other four quarter-finalists.

GROUP 2 - WINNERS B & D, RUNNERS-UP A & C


GERMANY
My tip to win at the beginning, I still think they have it in them to win it, or at least make the final. Three wins in the group, without really looking on fire - though remember it was a tough group.

ENGLAND
The consensus in the British media is that England have rode their luck and not really been too dominant, so probably won't last too long in the knockout stages. To be honest, it's hard to draw any real conclusions. They've not looked terrible, but they've not looked terribly good either. One thing that Roy Hodgson seems to have done, however, is to keep the team relatively organised, and after Rooney got that first game out of the way, he should be able to contribute a bit more.

GREECE
The big surprise for the knockouts, we all remember their heroics eight years ago, but with some injuries and suspensions, this team is certainly not quite as good as the one that triumphed back in Portugal. However, like Turkey four years ago, one thing they will have is real determination. It remains to be seen if they can keep a better team from scoring.

ITALY
Off-field problems haven't bothered Italy too much, as usual, and they looked surprisingly good in getting out of the group. They gave Spain a tough game, but struggled to break down Croatia, before just about squeezing past the whipping boys Ireland. They can certainly go further, but we'll see if they can manage it.

GERMANY vs GREECE
Other than the obvious political connotations behind this match, Germany really shouldn't struggle too much against the Greeks. It may not be a high-scoring game, knowing what Greece can be like, but that shouldn't stop the Germans putting one or two in the net.
GERMANY WIN

ENGLAND vs ITALY
This is definitely the closest of the four quarter-finals. Statistically, England are the better team, but they looked a little average in the group. Italy, by contrast, showed some real promise. It's a tough one to call, but I'm going to go with momentum on the Italians.
ITALY WIN

POTENTIAL SEMI-FINAL: GERMANY vs ITALY
You know already that I think Germany can win the tournament, so obviously I think they'd come out on top here. The Azzurri would need a lot of organisation to stop the German attack, and even then they'll need to snatch a goal from somewhere.
GERMANY WIN

So, there you have it. After my terrible predictions for the groups, I kind of hope these predictions will be totally wrong, too: it means this has been an exciting, unpredictable tournament. Let's find out.

Now the groups are over and done with, the remaining eight teams are essentially split into two groups: the winners of Groups A and C join the runners-up of Groups B and D to fight their way to the final. On the other side, it's the winners of Groups B and D with the runners-up of Groups A and C. Today, I'll deal with the first group, and see which of the four is my pick to reach the final.

GROUP 1 - WINNERS A & C, RUNNERS-UP B & D


CZECH REPUBLIC
Talk about a turnaround. The Czechs got demolished by the Russians on opening day, only to beat the Greeks and the Poles to top the group. They never looked totally convincing in an average group, but now they're through, we'll see what they're really made of.

SPAIN
They often say that champions start tournaments slowly... well, Spain weren't exactly terrible in the group: a better-than-expected Italy side took them to a draw, their whitewash against a terrible Ireland shouldn't be focussed on too much, and they looked very lucky indeed against Croatia. It was only a dodgy goal in the last few minutes that got them through - a goal for Croatia would've almost certainly eliminated them. Not a promising start, and the lack of David Villa is starting to show: against good sides, where will the goals come from?

PORTUGAL
They were narrowly beaten by the Germans, turned on the style against the Danes (though with a leaky defence) then put on a real show-stopper against the Dutch to qualify. After a couple of dodgy performances, their star man Ronaldo really came good against the Netherlands, linking up play and scoring with aplomb. If he can continue this form, Portugal should make the semis.

FRANCE
Woah, what happened here? Les Bleus seemed to be conserving their energy against England when they could've probably won easily; they changed gear in the second half against Ukraine to get the win; but they collapsed against Sweden when they could've easily topped the group. What went wrong? It seems like the French just can't put together a decent performance throughout a whole game, and it's cost them top spot. If they have any hope of reaching the semis, they'll have to improve dramatically.

CZECH REPUBLIC vs PORTUGAL
The big match-up here is Cristiano Ronaldo vs Theodor Gebre Selassie. The former is the most obvious attacking threat for the Portuguese (against the Dutch he made 12 shots, scored two goals and created three chances for teammates). The latter is a very agile full-back whose job will be to contain Ronaldo while created chances of his own. Whoever wins this battle could decide the tie, but I think 'CR7' and friends have too much for the Czechs to handle, and their defensive lapses will be offset by great attacking force.
PORTUGAL WIN

SPAIN vs FRANCE
Now this will be an interesting tie - not 'interesting' in terms of being fun to watch, as Spain have been largely ponderous so far, and the French seem to be losing motivation. Despite usually getting over 70% of the ball and passing endlessly, the one thing the Spanish have difficulty with is scoring (except against Ireland). The French, on the other hand, just don't seem to be all that bothered about scoring themselves. Expect a low-scoring games, which'll either be won by a single Spanish goal, or go to penalties.
SPAIN WIN

POTENTIAL SEMI-FINAL: PORTUGAL vs SPAIN
Despite Spain's lack of scoring, I think their possession will probably nullify Ronaldo's attacking threat - and nobody will know Ronaldo better than the collection of Real Madrid and Barcelona players on the pitch.
SPAIN WIN

I'll be back tomorrow to review the second notional group.

And finally, Group D. This is certainly not an easy decision.

Group D

The other co-host is obviously not quite as pleased as their neighbour, but it's hardly a simple proposition for the other three involved. There could be upsets here.


UKRAINE
High: 1792 (2010/09/07)
Low: 1711 (2011/09/06)
Biggest rise: 27 (England 1-0 Home, WC Qualifier, 2009/10/10)
Biggest fall: 28 (Greece 0-1 Home, WC Qualifier, 2009/11/18)

Unlike their co-host Poland, Ukraine are quite capable of qualifying for major tournaments without hosting them, as they demonstrated in 2006 when they reached the quarter final, and again in 2010, when they lost just one qualifying game (to England at Wembley) but were beaten in the playoffs by a single goal from Greece. This, however, is their first ever Euros, and their Greek experience may be a clue to their performance this time. Like Dynamo Kyiv (the home of several key players), the Ukrainians just can't finish a game when it matters. In defeat to England, the winning goal came five minutes from time. They faced a Greece side with a shaky defence (9 goals conceded in 8 matches) and couldn't even get a single goal over two legs. Having played no competitive matches since then, it's hard to gauge their real strength, but their limp performance in their friendly with Turkey suggests they just don't have the heart to get the job done. Dynamo Kyiv went undefeated almost the whole season, before losing to Shakhtar Donetsk in the final weeks, and drew their final two matches against lowly teams, losing out by a small margin. Since most of Shakhtar's best players are foreign, this is more or less Dynamo Kyiv Plus, and they'll probably mess it up in just the same way.


SWEDEN
High: 1857 (2012/05/30)
Low: 1724 (2009/06/06)
Biggest rise: 29 (Netherlands 3-2 Home, EC Qualifier, 2011/10/11)
Biggest fall: 27 (Hungary 1-2 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/09/02)

Most of the talk from the English media has been about the threat of France, which is strange given that Sweden are pretty damn good themselves. Currently they are ranked higher than France, and it's not without merit: they scored 20 in 8 games in qualifying, reaching the finals as best runner-up, and they had to contend with the Netherlands and a Hungarian side that have shown great promise. In warming up for the tournament, they're one of the only teams to win their last four matches, including a solid 3-1 defeat of fellow finalists Croatia. In Zlatan Ibrahimović they have a true match-winner who can both score and create, and the quality runs right through the team. Being in a group with France and England is a tough task, but they've shown time and again that they can blow any defence apart, even if their own defence could do with some work. Given the lack of firepower offered from England and Ukraine, they should progress.


FRANCE
High: 1903 (2008/08/20)
Low: 1711 (2010/09/03)
Biggest rise: 30 (Bosnia 2-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2010/09/07)
Biggest fall: 48 (Austria 1-3 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/06)

The Azzurri's catastrophic fall is mirrored by Les Bleus - in that it's the opposite. France were atrocious at the World Cup (and some were surprised when I predicted their downfall), and it spelt the end of Raymond Domenech and, perhaps, the end of an era. But what a difference Laurent Blanc has made. After a shaky start losing at home to Belarus, France have not looked back, winning their group in, admittedly, less than spectacular fashion, and confidence has been growing. With friendly victories against the likes of Germany, Brazil and England (plus, amusingly, both Ukraine and Poland in the space of three days - both away games), France's new generation has already shown their potential. Now it's time for them to make the most of it.


ENGLAND
High: 1986 (2009/09/09)
Low: 1888 (2008/08/20)
Biggest rise: 46 (Croatia 4-1 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)
Biggest fall: 55 (Germany 1-4 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/27)

Where to begin with the Three Lions? Despite being the highest-rated team of the group, most realistic England fans would agree that their position is a little inflated. Sure, they went undefeated through their qualifying, but Montenegro drew with them twice to finish second, and even the mediocre Czechs were able to beat them in both legs of the play-offs. And yes, they've performed well in friendlies, beating Spain and Sweden. But think back to the World Cup. A 0-0 draw with Algeria, the slenderest of victories against Slovenia, followed by humiliation from Germany. France and Sweden are not equal to the United States and Slovenia. Add into the mix a few new developments: the coach walking out and being replaced by someone with no competitive matches to prepare with; Wayne Rooney unavailable for the two most important games (the final game against Ukraine is probably redundant); numerous players being forced out of the team through injury; John Terry's pending court case (and Rio Ferdinand['s agent]'s public outcry over his non-selection)... France and Sweden come into the tournament with huge momentum, and play each other last. England are a team with many problems, and no time in which to solve them.

Prediction: FRANCE & SWEDEN QUALIFY

That's the four groups done with. Now go off and enjoy the group stages, and come back afterwards to get the low down on the quarter finals.

Welcome back, and let's look at one of the trickiest groups to call for some time (at least I think so).

Group C

One of the best national sides in history, a team in total disarray, a team who are just happy to be there, and Croatia. An interesting group.


SPAIN
High: 2140 (2010/07/11)
Low: 2032 (2010/06/16)
Biggest rise: 29 (Netherlands 1-0 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/07/11)
Biggest fall: 64 (USA 0-2 Neutral, Confederations Cup, 2009/06/24)

What needs to be said about Spain? They repeated France's World Cup/Euro double, but could they really make it three in a row? It's never been done before, and I really don't think it'll be done this time. Admittedly they hardly put a foot wrong in qualifying, and there's the scary statistic that, since the start of 2007, they have lost just six matches - and only two of them were competitive. Nevertheless, it can't last forever, and I just have a gut feeling that at some point, the Spanish will be found out. It may come in the final, but eventually, it will happen.


ITALY
High: 1983 (2008/09/10)
Low: 1807 (2010/11/17)
Biggest rise: 21 (USA 3-1 Neutral, Confederations Cup, 2009/06/15)
Biggest fall: 49 (Slovakia 2-3 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/24)

Italy's fall from grace is even more striking than that of France at the last World Cup. Champions in 2006, they navigated a tricky group containing the Netherlands and a dispirited France, before losing out on penalties to the unstoppable Spanish machine. Fair enough, you say, but two years later in South Africa, things got so bad that nobody could have foreseen their failure to escape a relatively simple group containing Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, finishing bottom. One would think that conceding just two goals and going undefeated in their 10 qualifying games would be a sign of progress, but this was a group so weak that even Estonia finished in second place. The biggest worry, of course, is the fresh scandal that resulted in the cancellation of their warm-up with Luxembourg, and the arrest of one of the players. Sure, Italy won the World Cup in 1982 after a betting scandal, and again in 2006 after the Calciopoli scandal, but can lightning strike thrice? The team don't seem to have their minds on the game, evidenced by their 3-0 thrashing by the in-form Russians recently. With the retirement (and arrest) of key players, this is an even worse team than the one who finished bottom of their group two years ago. Don't be shocked to see that happen again.


IRELAND
High: 1792 (2011/11/11)
Low: 1710 (2010/11/17)
Biggest rise: 21 (Macedonia 2-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/06/04 & Estonia 4-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/11/11)
Biggest fall: 24 (Australia 0-3 Home, Friendly, 2009/08/12)

The Irish have only been to the Euros once before, in 1988, where under the guidance of Jack Charlton they almost managed a semi-final place, beating England in the process. They've had good times at World Cups since, but this is their first tournament in ten years, after coming the width of Thierry Henry's hand from South Africa. Frankly, however, they have an almighty task ahead. One of the lowest-ranked teams in the competition, the luck of the Irish has brought them a nasty group to navigate. Their only real hope is to have faith in their reasonably solid defense and grind out a draw or two. If we all assume Spain will walk through all three games unscathed, it's a straight fight between three teams that are much closer than one would expect. Simply put, the opening game against Croatia is vital. Lose that, and they can pack their bags already. Win, and they may just do it.


CROATIA
High: 1901 (2008/09/06)
Low: 1838 (2011/10/07)
Biggest rise: 35 (Turkey 3-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/11/11)
Biggest fall: 46 (England 1-4 Home, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)

Oh Croatia, whatever has happened to you? At Euro 2008, they did rather well: they conceded just two goals, and didn't actually lose a game (the penalty shoot-out loss to Turkey doesn't really count), even beating the Germans on the way. Since then it's been a hell of a slide. They kicked off their World Cup qualifying by losing a home game for the first time ever, beaten badly by England, and they failed to qualify. This time, they just about made it, but with no great confidence. They drew and lost to fellow qualifiers Greece, and needed a play-off against a poor Turkish side to progress. Italy's woes are Croatia's lucky break, but there's the little matter of a first day encounter with an Irish side who'll be fired up to get a result themselves. It all comes down to three big games, and if the right Croatia turns up, they can make it through - but not much further.

Prediction: SPAIN & IRELAND QUALIFY

Group D is the final preview for me, and it's probably the toughest group to call. See you tomorrow.

Continuing my preview of Euro 2012, I take a look at the second group, the so-called 'group of death'.

Group B

It's a group of two halves: two possible winners of the tournament, with two teams that should really be doing better than they are. Given that only two can go through, it should be a simple equation.


NETHERLANDS
High: 2100 (2010/07/06)
Low: 1978 (2008/09/06)
Biggest rise: 35 (Brazil 2-1 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/07/02)
Biggest fall: 29 (Spain 0-1 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/07/11 & Sweden 2-3 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/10/11)

Four years ago, they demolished Italy and France, two of the favourites, and everybody went bananas, thinking they just had to win. But then it all went wrong somehow as Russia caused a huge upset to knock them out. Two years ago, they did much better, coming out of an easy group to beat Slovakia, Brazil and Uruguay, before forgetting how to play football against Spain. So what to expect this time? As usual, they're hard to predict: they were supreme in qualifying, scoring more than any other team and going almost perfect (a last-match defeat to Sweden shouldn't be examined too closely). But their friendly warm-ups have been rather inconsistent: adding to unconvincing performances against lesser teams, their Group B opponents Germany gave them a thrashing. Can they win the whole thing this time? Maybe, but it's just so hard to predict what you get from the Dutch.


DENMARK
High: 1819 (2009/06/06)
Low: 1694 (2010/10/08)
Biggest rise: 29 (Portugal 3-2 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)
Biggest fall: 53 (Japan 1-3 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/24)

It's been an interesting four years for the Danes. They clinched World Cup qualification looking pretty damn good, and in a group with Cameroon and Japan, what could go wrong? Well, a 3-1 defeat to the Japanese, coupled with an expected defeat to the rampaging Dutch, made their victory against Cameroon rather moot, and left Denmark in their lowest ranking for some time. They've picked it up, however, and in a group with Portugal and resurgent neighbours Norway, they did enough to top their group. But talk about rotten luck: all that effort, and they're stuck with Germany, the Netherlands, and, worst of all, their qualifying rivals Portugal. Pity the poor Danes.


GERMANY
High: 2057 (2011/11/15)
Low: 1915 (2010/06/18)
Biggest rise: 59 (Argentina 4-0 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/07/03)
Biggest fall: 45 (Serbia 0-1 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/18)

The Germans performed beyond expectations at Euro 2008, finally falling at the end to mighty Spain. Again, going into the World Cup, they flattered to deceive, and even lost to Serbia (like losing to Croatia in 2008), but they stunned us all with the sheer brilliance of their attacking, as they steamrollered England and Argentina before losing out (again) to Spain. One wonders how the Germans would've fared if Spain wasn't experiencing a golden age, but runners-up and 3rd place is a record most nations would clamour for. This time, nobody's underestimating them after a perfet qualifying campaign, and I think they may just have enough to go all the way this time.


PORTUGAL
High: 1888 (2011/10/07)
Low: 1789 (2009/03/28)
Biggest rise: 27 (Spain 4-0 Home, Friendly, 2010/11/17)
Biggest fall: 29 (Denmark 2-3 Home, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)

Always the bridesmaid... Portugal are now what Spain used to be: exciting, dynamic, and never quite managing to do it when it matters. They reached the final of this tournament when they hosted it in 2004, but overconfidence (and solid Greek defending) was their undoing. In Germany, they were undone by France in the semi-finals; in Switzerland, it was the Germans in the quarter-finals. In South Africa, nobody could really blame them for losing to Spain. Every time in the last four tournaments, they've been beaten by a finalist in the knockouts. Against the big boys, they just can't handle it. This time, they have TWO of the big boys in the first round. Here we go again...

Prediction: GERMANY & NETHERLANDS QUALIFY

Come back and see me tomorrow, where we'll see a real mixed bag of a group.

Euro 2012 is here! The friendlies are over, it's time for the real action to begin - and it's time for my predictions for who's going through in Poland and Ukraine. I did the exact same thing two years ago for the World Cup in South Africa, and after correctly predicting 13 out of 16 teams to get through the groups, I feel pretty confident about trying my hand with the Euros, too.

In case you didn't catch my previous predictions, give me a minute to explain. Although FIFA use their own rankings system for international teams, I personally prefer the Elo ratings system (http://www.eloratings.net), which is a lot more transparent, and has the advantage of being updated after every single game, thanks to a relatively simple mathematical equation. Using this, plus a bit of good old fashioned research, I'm going to give you a quick lowdown on all 16 teams, with a graph showing the four-year progress of the Elo rating of the four teams in each group. Note that although the start and end time of each graph is the same, some teams have played more matches, so there are more points on their graphs. Also, the 'high/low' and 'rise/fall' is all in the last four years, not in the country's history.

We start with the first group, Group A, containing one of the hosts. Every day I'll come back with predictions for the other three groups. After the groups are over with, I'll immediately return with a look at the next couple of rounds.

Group A

It's not the most exciting of groups, with four relatively average teams (the highest-ranked team, Russia, are ranked 10th in Europe), so it's a tough one to call. What is in no doubt, however, is that the co-hosts still have a tough task ahead.


POLAND
High: 1727 (2009/02/11)
Low: 1597 (2009/11/14)
Biggest rise: 22 (Czech Rep 2-1 Home, EC Qualifier, 2008/10/11)
Biggest fall: 40 (Slovenia 0-3 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/09/09)

After getting a single point in Euro 2008 and a terrible 2009 that saw them slide around 20 places down the Elo rankings, Poland have been making a slow comeback. Nevertheless, they're still the only team ranked outside Europe's top 16, and they'll just need to hope that home advantage takes them through, in arguably the weakest of the four groups. It's worth mentioning that the slow comeback has been in non-competitive matches, too, so they haven't faced a real test in a while.


GREECE
High: 1782 (2011/10/11)
Low: 1670 (2010/06/12)
Biggest rise: 32 (Nigeria 2-1 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/17 & Croatia 2-0 Home, EC Qualifier, 2011/10/07)
Biggest fall: 40 (South Korea 0-2 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/12)

They were terrible last time in Austria, but somehow made it to the World Cup thanks to beating a poor Ukraine. This time, though, they topped a rather average group ahead of Croatia, and have thus turned into serial qualifiers, despite never being all that good. Their average qualifying group might make their rating a little deceptive, but if they want a chance in another average group, this is it.


RUSSIA
High: 1885 (2009/09/09)
Low: 1768 (2011/03/29 & 2011/06/07)
Biggest rise: 26 (Finland 3-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/06/10)
Biggest fall: 33 (Slovakia 0-1 Home, EC Qualifier, 2010/09/07)

The Russians did so well in Austria/Switzerland, but couldn't stop the Spanish machine. Since then, there hasn't been much to cheer about, as Slovenia pulled off an amazing away goals win to beat them to South Africa, and they're back this time round after topping their qualification group. This isn't nearly as good a team as we saw four years ago, and their only comfort is being the best of a bad bunch this time round. They should make it through, but not much further.


CZECH REPUBLIC
High: 1843 (2008/08/20)
Low: 1694 (2010/09/07)
Biggest rise: 24 (Lithuania 4-1 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/10/11)
Biggest fall: 41 (Azerbaijan 0-2 Neutral, Friendly Tournament, 2009/11/18)

After bowing out of a tough group last time, the Czechs collapsed, finished 3rd behind Slovakia and Slovenia in their World Cup qualifying group. They were poor in qualifying this time, but had a rather easy group to finish runner-up in, and were then very lucky to be seeded for their playoff, drawing Montenegro. In other words, they've been living a charmed life thus far, and it can't last forever.

Prediction: RUSSIA & POLAND QUALIFY

Make sure to come back tomorrow for Group B!