Friday, 22 June 2012

Welcome back. Let's take a look at our other four quarter-finalists.

GROUP 2 - WINNERS B & D, RUNNERS-UP A & C


GERMANY
My tip to win at the beginning, I still think they have it in them to win it, or at least make the final. Three wins in the group, without really looking on fire - though remember it was a tough group.

ENGLAND
The consensus in the British media is that England have rode their luck and not really been too dominant, so probably won't last too long in the knockout stages. To be honest, it's hard to draw any real conclusions. They've not looked terrible, but they've not looked terribly good either. One thing that Roy Hodgson seems to have done, however, is to keep the team relatively organised, and after Rooney got that first game out of the way, he should be able to contribute a bit more.

GREECE
The big surprise for the knockouts, we all remember their heroics eight years ago, but with some injuries and suspensions, this team is certainly not quite as good as the one that triumphed back in Portugal. However, like Turkey four years ago, one thing they will have is real determination. It remains to be seen if they can keep a better team from scoring.

ITALY
Off-field problems haven't bothered Italy too much, as usual, and they looked surprisingly good in getting out of the group. They gave Spain a tough game, but struggled to break down Croatia, before just about squeezing past the whipping boys Ireland. They can certainly go further, but we'll see if they can manage it.

GERMANY vs GREECE
Other than the obvious political connotations behind this match, Germany really shouldn't struggle too much against the Greeks. It may not be a high-scoring game, knowing what Greece can be like, but that shouldn't stop the Germans putting one or two in the net.
GERMANY WIN

ENGLAND vs ITALY
This is definitely the closest of the four quarter-finals. Statistically, England are the better team, but they looked a little average in the group. Italy, by contrast, showed some real promise. It's a tough one to call, but I'm going to go with momentum on the Italians.
ITALY WIN

POTENTIAL SEMI-FINAL: GERMANY vs ITALY
You know already that I think Germany can win the tournament, so obviously I think they'd come out on top here. The Azzurri would need a lot of organisation to stop the German attack, and even then they'll need to snatch a goal from somewhere.
GERMANY WIN

So, there you have it. After my terrible predictions for the groups, I kind of hope these predictions will be totally wrong, too: it means this has been an exciting, unpredictable tournament. Let's find out.

Thursday, 21 June 2012

Now the groups are over and done with, the remaining eight teams are essentially split into two groups: the winners of Groups A and C join the runners-up of Groups B and D to fight their way to the final. On the other side, it's the winners of Groups B and D with the runners-up of Groups A and C. Today, I'll deal with the first group, and see which of the four is my pick to reach the final.

GROUP 1 - WINNERS A & C, RUNNERS-UP B & D


CZECH REPUBLIC
Talk about a turnaround. The Czechs got demolished by the Russians on opening day, only to beat the Greeks and the Poles to top the group. They never looked totally convincing in an average group, but now they're through, we'll see what they're really made of.

SPAIN
They often say that champions start tournaments slowly... well, Spain weren't exactly terrible in the group: a better-than-expected Italy side took them to a draw, their whitewash against a terrible Ireland shouldn't be focussed on too much, and they looked very lucky indeed against Croatia. It was only a dodgy goal in the last few minutes that got them through - a goal for Croatia would've almost certainly eliminated them. Not a promising start, and the lack of David Villa is starting to show: against good sides, where will the goals come from?

PORTUGAL
They were narrowly beaten by the Germans, turned on the style against the Danes (though with a leaky defence) then put on a real show-stopper against the Dutch to qualify. After a couple of dodgy performances, their star man Ronaldo really came good against the Netherlands, linking up play and scoring with aplomb. If he can continue this form, Portugal should make the semis.

FRANCE
Woah, what happened here? Les Bleus seemed to be conserving their energy against England when they could've probably won easily; they changed gear in the second half against Ukraine to get the win; but they collapsed against Sweden when they could've easily topped the group. What went wrong? It seems like the French just can't put together a decent performance throughout a whole game, and it's cost them top spot. If they have any hope of reaching the semis, they'll have to improve dramatically.

CZECH REPUBLIC vs PORTUGAL
The big match-up here is Cristiano Ronaldo vs Theodor Gebre Selassie. The former is the most obvious attacking threat for the Portuguese (against the Dutch he made 12 shots, scored two goals and created three chances for teammates). The latter is a very agile full-back whose job will be to contain Ronaldo while created chances of his own. Whoever wins this battle could decide the tie, but I think 'CR7' and friends have too much for the Czechs to handle, and their defensive lapses will be offset by great attacking force.
PORTUGAL WIN

SPAIN vs FRANCE
Now this will be an interesting tie - not 'interesting' in terms of being fun to watch, as Spain have been largely ponderous so far, and the French seem to be losing motivation. Despite usually getting over 70% of the ball and passing endlessly, the one thing the Spanish have difficulty with is scoring (except against Ireland). The French, on the other hand, just don't seem to be all that bothered about scoring themselves. Expect a low-scoring games, which'll either be won by a single Spanish goal, or go to penalties.
SPAIN WIN

POTENTIAL SEMI-FINAL: PORTUGAL vs SPAIN
Despite Spain's lack of scoring, I think their possession will probably nullify Ronaldo's attacking threat - and nobody will know Ronaldo better than the collection of Real Madrid and Barcelona players on the pitch.
SPAIN WIN

I'll be back tomorrow to review the second notional group.