Welcome back, and let's look at one of the trickiest groups to call for some time (at least I think so).

Group C

One of the best national sides in history, a team in total disarray, a team who are just happy to be there, and Croatia. An interesting group.


SPAIN
High: 2140 (2010/07/11)
Low: 2032 (2010/06/16)
Biggest rise: 29 (Netherlands 1-0 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/07/11)
Biggest fall: 64 (USA 0-2 Neutral, Confederations Cup, 2009/06/24)

What needs to be said about Spain? They repeated France's World Cup/Euro double, but could they really make it three in a row? It's never been done before, and I really don't think it'll be done this time. Admittedly they hardly put a foot wrong in qualifying, and there's the scary statistic that, since the start of 2007, they have lost just six matches - and only two of them were competitive. Nevertheless, it can't last forever, and I just have a gut feeling that at some point, the Spanish will be found out. It may come in the final, but eventually, it will happen.


ITALY
High: 1983 (2008/09/10)
Low: 1807 (2010/11/17)
Biggest rise: 21 (USA 3-1 Neutral, Confederations Cup, 2009/06/15)
Biggest fall: 49 (Slovakia 2-3 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/24)

Italy's fall from grace is even more striking than that of France at the last World Cup. Champions in 2006, they navigated a tricky group containing the Netherlands and a dispirited France, before losing out on penalties to the unstoppable Spanish machine. Fair enough, you say, but two years later in South Africa, things got so bad that nobody could have foreseen their failure to escape a relatively simple group containing Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, finishing bottom. One would think that conceding just two goals and going undefeated in their 10 qualifying games would be a sign of progress, but this was a group so weak that even Estonia finished in second place. The biggest worry, of course, is the fresh scandal that resulted in the cancellation of their warm-up with Luxembourg, and the arrest of one of the players. Sure, Italy won the World Cup in 1982 after a betting scandal, and again in 2006 after the Calciopoli scandal, but can lightning strike thrice? The team don't seem to have their minds on the game, evidenced by their 3-0 thrashing by the in-form Russians recently. With the retirement (and arrest) of key players, this is an even worse team than the one who finished bottom of their group two years ago. Don't be shocked to see that happen again.


IRELAND
High: 1792 (2011/11/11)
Low: 1710 (2010/11/17)
Biggest rise: 21 (Macedonia 2-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/06/04 & Estonia 4-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/11/11)
Biggest fall: 24 (Australia 0-3 Home, Friendly, 2009/08/12)

The Irish have only been to the Euros once before, in 1988, where under the guidance of Jack Charlton they almost managed a semi-final place, beating England in the process. They've had good times at World Cups since, but this is their first tournament in ten years, after coming the width of Thierry Henry's hand from South Africa. Frankly, however, they have an almighty task ahead. One of the lowest-ranked teams in the competition, the luck of the Irish has brought them a nasty group to navigate. Their only real hope is to have faith in their reasonably solid defense and grind out a draw or two. If we all assume Spain will walk through all three games unscathed, it's a straight fight between three teams that are much closer than one would expect. Simply put, the opening game against Croatia is vital. Lose that, and they can pack their bags already. Win, and they may just do it.


CROATIA
High: 1901 (2008/09/06)
Low: 1838 (2011/10/07)
Biggest rise: 35 (Turkey 3-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/11/11)
Biggest fall: 46 (England 1-4 Home, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)

Oh Croatia, whatever has happened to you? At Euro 2008, they did rather well: they conceded just two goals, and didn't actually lose a game (the penalty shoot-out loss to Turkey doesn't really count), even beating the Germans on the way. Since then it's been a hell of a slide. They kicked off their World Cup qualifying by losing a home game for the first time ever, beaten badly by England, and they failed to qualify. This time, they just about made it, but with no great confidence. They drew and lost to fellow qualifiers Greece, and needed a play-off against a poor Turkish side to progress. Italy's woes are Croatia's lucky break, but there's the little matter of a first day encounter with an Irish side who'll be fired up to get a result themselves. It all comes down to three big games, and if the right Croatia turns up, they can make it through - but not much further.

Prediction: SPAIN & IRELAND QUALIFY

Group D is the final preview for me, and it's probably the toughest group to call. See you tomorrow.