In case you didn't catch my previous predictions, give me a minute to explain. Although FIFA use their own rankings system for international teams, I personally prefer the Elo ratings system (http://www.eloratings.net), which is a lot more transparent, and has the advantage of being updated after every single game, thanks to a relatively simple mathematical equation. Using this, plus a bit of good old fashioned research, I'm going to give you a quick lowdown on all 16 teams, with a graph showing the four-year progress of the Elo rating of the four teams in each group. Note that although the start and end time of each graph is the same, some teams have played more matches, so there are more points on their graphs. Also, the 'high/low' and 'rise/fall' is all in the last four years, not in the country's history.
We start with the first group, Group A, containing one of the hosts. Every day I'll come back with predictions for the other three groups. After the groups are over with, I'll immediately return with a look at the next couple of rounds.
Group A
It's not the most exciting of groups, with four relatively average teams (the highest-ranked team, Russia, are ranked 10th in Europe), so it's a tough one to call. What is in no doubt, however, is that the co-hosts still have a tough task ahead.
POLAND
High: 1727 (2009/02/11)
Low: 1597 (2009/11/14)
Biggest rise: 22 (Czech Rep 2-1 Home, EC Qualifier, 2008/10/11)
Biggest fall: 40 (Slovenia 0-3 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/09/09)
After getting a single point in Euro 2008 and a terrible 2009 that saw them slide around 20 places down the Elo rankings, Poland have been making a slow comeback. Nevertheless, they're still the only team ranked outside Europe's top 16, and they'll just need to hope that home advantage takes them through, in arguably the weakest of the four groups. It's worth mentioning that the slow comeback has been in non-competitive matches, too, so they haven't faced a real test in a while.
GREECE
High: 1782 (2011/10/11)
Low: 1670 (2010/06/12)
Biggest rise: 32 (Nigeria 2-1 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/17 & Croatia 2-0 Home, EC Qualifier, 2011/10/07)
Biggest fall: 40 (South Korea 0-2 Neutral, World Cup, 2010/06/12)
They were terrible last time in Austria, but somehow made it to the World Cup thanks to beating a poor Ukraine. This time, though, they topped a rather average group ahead of Croatia, and have thus turned into serial qualifiers, despite never being all that good. Their average qualifying group might make their rating a little deceptive, but if they want a chance in another average group, this is it.
RUSSIA
High: 1885 (2009/09/09)
Low: 1768 (2011/03/29 & 2011/06/07)
Biggest rise: 26 (Finland 3-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/06/10)
Biggest fall: 33 (Slovakia 0-1 Home, EC Qualifier, 2010/09/07)
The Russians did so well in Austria/Switzerland, but couldn't stop the Spanish machine. Since then, there hasn't been much to cheer about, as Slovenia pulled off an amazing away goals win to beat them to South Africa, and they're back this time round after topping their qualification group. This isn't nearly as good a team as we saw four years ago, and their only comfort is being the best of a bad bunch this time round. They should make it through, but not much further.
CZECH REPUBLIC
High: 1843 (2008/08/20)
Low: 1694 (2010/09/07)
Biggest rise: 24 (Lithuania 4-1 Away, EC Qualifier, 2011/10/11)
Biggest fall: 41 (Azerbaijan 0-2 Neutral, Friendly Tournament, 2009/11/18)
After bowing out of a tough group last time, the Czechs collapsed, finished 3rd behind Slovakia and Slovenia in their World Cup qualifying group. They were poor in qualifying this time, but had a rather easy group to finish runner-up in, and were then very lucky to be seeded for their playoff, drawing Montenegro. In other words, they've been living a charmed life thus far, and it can't last forever.
Prediction: RUSSIA & POLAND QUALIFY
Make sure to come back tomorrow for Group B!
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